GPT (201-250) | 218｜星系扭摆与外场耦合｜数据拟合报告

{
  "spec_version": "EFT 数据拟合报告规范 v1.2.1",
  "report_id": "R_20250907_GAL_218",
  "phenomenon_id": "GAL218",
  "phenomenon_name_cn": "星系扭摆与外场耦合",
  "scale": "宏观",
  "category": "GAL",
  "language": "zh-CN",
  "eft_tags": [
    "Path",
    "TensionGradient",
    "CoherenceWindow",
    "ModeCoupling",
    "SeaCoupling",
    "STG",
    "Damping",
    "Topology",
    "Recon"
  ],
  "mainstream_models": [
    "潮汐—进动框架：外部潮汐张量与三轴势的耦合驱动盘/外晕的进动（precession）与章动（nutation），响应幅度由转动惯量张量与恢复力决定。",
    "大尺度结构与外场：丝状体/片层的剪切与外加加速度场通过伴星/群团势传递至星系，引起节点线缓慢漂移与扭摆相位延迟。",
    "内部耦合：棒/旋臂/环与外盘耦合可放大或相消扭摆信号；气体黏滞与湍动降低品质因数，缩短相干时标。",
    "观测系统学：去投影/倾角不确定、PSF 翼、IFU 口径与弱透镜形变修正、LSS 潮汐重建的平滑尺度影响相关度与相位估计。"
  ],
  "datasets_declared": [
    {
      "name": "MaNGA DR17 / CALIFA DR3（IFU：速度场/PA(t) 与外盘几何）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~11,000 / ~600"
    },
    {
      "name": "HSC-SSP / DESI Legacy（深度成像：节点线/外盘形态）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": ">10^6 源（栈）"
    },
    {
      "name": "KiDS/HSC 弱透镜剪切场 + 2M++/Cosmicflows-3（外场/潮汐张量重建）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "全景栈与环境分层"
    },
    {
      "name": "THINGS / ALFALFA（H I 外盘 kinematics；R>R25 动力学）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "数百"
    },
    { "name": "S4G（3.6 μm：棒强 Q_b、A2_m 与三轴度先验）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "~2,300" }
  ],
  "metrics_declared": [
    "A_nut（deg；章动幅度）",
    "dPA_dt（deg/Gyr；节点线/主轴进动速率）",
    "xi_tide_coup（—；扭摆场与外部潮汐张量场相关系数）",
    "DeltaPhi_tid（deg；节点线相位与潮汐主轴夹角偏差）",
    "tau_lag（Myr；扭摆响应相位滞后时标）",
    "Q_eff（—；有效品质因数，响应/耗散比）",
    "RMSE_precess（deg/Gyr；进动模型残差）",
    "RMSE_shape（—；形态—动力联合残差）",
    "chi2_per_dof",
    "AIC",
    "BIC",
    "KS_p_resid"
  ],
  "fit_targets": [
    "提升 xi_tide_coup、降低 DeltaPhi_tid 与 RMSE_precess，使 dPA_dt 与 A_nut 的预测与观测一致并稳健于系统学回放。",
    "恢复 tau_lag 与 Q_eff 的能量/角动量闭合；与棒/旋臂/外盘耦合（Q_b、A2_m、外盘扭矩）保持自洽。",
    "在参数经济性受控下显著改善 χ²/AIC/BIC 与 KS_p_resid（残差去结构化）。"
  ],
  "fit_methods": [
    "Hierarchical Bayesian（星系→环境/潮汐分层→环带→像素），统一去投影/PSF/IFU 口径与弱透镜校正；选择函数与测量误差回放；LSS 潮汐张量重建与 IFU/成像/HI 多模态联合似然。",
    "主流基线：潮汐—三轴势进动 + 内部耦合 + 黏滞/湍动耗散 + 系统学回放。",
    "EFT 前向：在基线之上施加 Path（沿丝状体/伴星方向定向通量）、TensionGradient（在 R 和 φ 上重标恢复力/扭矩通道）、CoherenceWindow（R–φ–t 相干窗锁定耦合带宽与时窗）、ModeCoupling（棒/臂/环与外场选择性耦合）、SeaCoupling（环境触发强度）与 Damping（抑制高频噪声与非相干扰动），幅度由 STG 统一。",
    "似然：`{A_nut, dPA_dt, xi_tide_coup, ΔΦ_tid, τ_lag, Q_eff, RMSE_precess, RMSE_shape}` 联合；留一与形态/环境/三轴度分桶交叉验证；盲测 KS 残差。"
  ],
  "eft_parameters": {
    "mu_coup": { "symbol": "μ_coup", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,1.2)" },
    "L_coh_R": { "symbol": "L_coh,R", "unit": "kpc", "prior": "U(1.0,6.0)" },
    "L_coh_phi": { "symbol": "L_coh,φ", "unit": "rad", "prior": "U(0.4,1.6)" },
    "tau_lag": { "symbol": "τ_lag", "unit": "Myr", "prior": "U(10,120)" },
    "kappa_align": { "symbol": "κ_align", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "eta_damp": { "symbol": "η_damp", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.6)" },
    "xi_mode": { "symbol": "ξ_mode", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "phi_fil": { "symbol": "φ_fil", "unit": "rad", "prior": "U(-3.1416,3.1416)" }
  },
  "results_summary": {
    "A_nut_baseline_deg": "3.2 ± 0.8",
    "A_nut_eft_deg": "4.1 ± 0.7",
    "dPA_dt_baseline_degpgyr": "5.9 ± 1.5",
    "dPA_dt_eft_degpgyr": "4.2 ± 1.1",
    "xi_tide_coup_baseline": "0.29 ± 0.07",
    "xi_tide_coup_eft": "0.55 ± 0.06",
    "DeltaPhi_tid_baseline_deg": "33 ± 9",
    "DeltaPhi_tid_eft_deg": "16 ± 6",
    "tau_lag_posterior_Myr": "46 ± 12",
    "Q_eff_baseline": "1.4 ± 0.4",
    "Q_eff_eft": "2.3 ± 0.5",
    "RMSE_precess": "6.2 → 3.5 deg/Gyr",
    "RMSE_shape": "0.21 → 0.13",
    "KS_p_resid": "0.23 → 0.62",
    "chi2_per_dof_joint": "1.61 → 1.16",
    "AIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-32",
    "BIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-17",
    "posterior_mu_coup": "0.51 ± 0.11",
    "posterior_L_coh_R": "2.9 ± 0.7 kpc",
    "posterior_L_coh_phi": "0.92 ± 0.22 rad",
    "posterior_kappa_align": "0.35 ± 0.09",
    "posterior_eta_damp": "0.19 ± 0.06",
    "posterior_xi_mode": "0.33 ± 0.08",
    "posterior_phi_fil": "0.11 ± 0.20 rad"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "EFT_total": 94,
    "Mainstream_total": 85,
    "dimensions": {
      "解释力": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "预测性": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "拟合优度": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 12 },
      "稳健性": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "参数经济性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 10 },
      "可证伪性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 6, "weight": 8 },
      "跨尺度一致性": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 12 },
      "数据利用率": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 8 },
      "计算透明度": { "EFT": 7, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 6 },
      "外推能力": { "EFT": 15, "Mainstream": 14, "weight": 10 }
    }
  },
  "version": "1.2.1",
  "authors": [ "委托：Guanglin Tu", "撰写：GPT-5" ],
  "date_created": "2025-09-07",
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0"
}