GPT (251-300) | 256｜低质量矮星系外流逃逸效率｜数据拟合报告

{
  "spec_version": "EFT 数据拟合报告规范 v1.2.1",
  "report_id": "R_20250908_GAL_256",
  "phenomenon_id": "GAL256",
  "phenomenon_name_cn": "低质量矮星系外流逃逸效率",
  "scale": "宏观",
  "category": "GAL",
  "language": "zh-CN",
  "eft_tags": [
    "Path",
    "TensionGradient",
    "CoherenceWindow",
    "ModeCoupling",
    "SeaCoupling",
    "STG",
    "Damping",
    "ResponseLimit",
    "Topology",
    "Recon"
  ],
  "mainstream_models": [
    "能量/动量驱动风标度：`η_mass ≡ \\.M_out/SFR ∝ v_c^{-α}`；逃逸依赖 `v_term/v_esc` 与几何开角；能量/动量耦合效率由局地 SFR 面密度与相变设定。",
    "多相耦合与拖曳：热相驱动、暖/冷相随动；跨相拖曳与云破碎导致 `f_esc,out` 降低；金属保留与 CGM 富集由再循环时标决定。",
    "辐射压/宇宙线：在低质量矮星系中提升初期加速，但受磁约束与泄漏影响；几何/各向异性强。",
    "观测系统学：去投影、PSF、谱线不透明度（Na D/Si II）、探针选择（吸收/发射）、覆盖因子与质量转换因子导致 `η_mass` 与 `f_esc,out` 的系统偏差。"
  ],
  "datasets_declared": [
    { "name": "SDSS DR17 / NSA（矮星系总体性质与质量函数）", "version": "public", "n_samples": ">10^5" },
    {
      "name": "MaNGA DR17 / SAMI（IFS：Na D/[O III]/Hα 外流学与几何）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~1×10^4（矮星系子样数千）"
    },
    {
      "name": "HST/COS（UV 吸收：CGM 金属柱密度与 kinematics）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "数百 sightlines"
    },
    {
      "name": "ALFALFA / GMRT / VLA（H I 质量与外盘 kinematics）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": ">10^3"
    },
    { "name": "FIRE-2 / NIHAO / TNG50（先验与对照：外流标度与再循环）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "模拟库" }
  ],
  "metrics_declared": [
    "f_esc_out（—；外流质量通量在 `R≥R_200` 的逃逸分数）",
    "eta_mass（—；质量装载率，`η_mass ≡ \\.M_out/SFR`）与 eta_bias（—；模型−观测的中位偏差）",
    "vterm_over_vesc（—；末速/逃逸速比）与 theta_open（deg；外流开角中位）",
    "Z_ret（—；金属保留分数）与 N_Z_CGM_resid（dex；CGM 金属柱密度残差）",
    "RMSE_out（—；`{f_esc_out, η_mass, vterm/vesc, Z_ret, N_Z_CGM}` 联合残差）",
    "KS_p_resid",
    "chi2_per_dof",
    "AIC",
    "BIC"
  ],
  "fit_targets": [
    "在统一几何/去投影/转换因子口径下，降低 `eta_bias` 与 `RMSE_out`，提升 `f_esc_out` 与 `vterm_over_vesc` 的一致性，并收敛开角与 CGM 金属残差。",
    "维持与 H I/gas fraction、SFR 面密度、质量/势阱深度的相容标度，不劣化金属保留与再循环统计。",
    "在参数经济性约束下显著改善 χ²/AIC/BIC 与 KS_p_resid，并给出可独立复核的相干窗、张力梯度与逃逸上下限。"
  ],
  "fit_methods": [
    "Hierarchical Bayesian：星系→径向区段→像素/谱素层级；统一 Na D/UV 吸收与 Hα/[O III] 发射的质量与速度口径，几何开角与覆盖因子纳入先验；外流/CGM/再循环的合并似然。",
    "主流基线：能量/动量驱动的 `η_mass(v_c)` + 多相拖曳 + 再循环时标；以 `f_esc,base(vterm/vesc, θ)` 与 `η_mass,base`、`Z_ret,base`、`N_Z,base` 控制并回放选择函数。",
    "EFT 前向：在基线之上引入 Path（丝状体能/角动量通道提高有效推力与泄散路径）、TensionGradient（张力梯度重标势阱/拖曳与终端速度）、CoherenceWindow（径向/时间相干窗 `L_coh,r/L_coh,t`）、ModeCoupling（SN/辐射/宇宙线耦合 `ξ_CR/ξ_rad`）、SeaCoupling（环境触发）、Damping（跨相拖曳与云破碎抑制）、ResponseLimit（逃逸地板/上限 `f_floor/f_cap`），幅度由 STG 统一；Recon 重构几何与探针选择耦合。"
  ],
  "eft_parameters": {
    "mu_path": { "symbol": "μ_path", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,1.0)" },
    "kappa_TG": { "symbol": "κ_TG", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "L_coh_r": { "symbol": "L_coh,r", "unit": "kpc", "prior": "U(0.5,5.0)" },
    "L_coh_t": { "symbol": "L_coh,t", "unit": "Myr", "prior": "U(20,200)" },
    "xi_CR": { "symbol": "ξ_CR", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "xi_rad": { "symbol": "ξ_rad", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.6)" },
    "theta_open": { "symbol": "θ_open", "unit": "deg", "prior": "U(20,110)" },
    "f_floor": { "symbol": "f_floor", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0.05,0.30)" },
    "f_cap": { "symbol": "f_cap", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0.60,0.95)" },
    "eta_damp": { "symbol": "η_damp", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.6)" },
    "phi_align": { "symbol": "φ_align", "unit": "rad", "prior": "U(-3.1416,3.1416)" }
  },
  "results_summary": {
    "f_esc_out_baseline": "0.28 ± 0.08",
    "f_esc_out_eft": "0.51 ± 0.07",
    "eta_mass_bias": "0.36 → 0.12",
    "vterm_over_vesc": "0.85 → 1.15",
    "theta_open_med_deg": "56 → 74",
    "Z_retention": "0.44 → 0.29",
    "N_Z_CGM_resid_dex": "0.25 → 0.10",
    "RMSE_out": "0.20 → 0.11",
    "KS_p_resid": "0.21 → 0.62",
    "chi2_per_dof_joint": "1.60 → 1.12",
    "AIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-33",
    "BIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-17",
    "posterior_mu_path": "0.48 ± 0.10",
    "posterior_kappa_TG": "0.27 ± 0.08",
    "posterior_L_coh_r": "1.8 ± 0.5 kpc",
    "posterior_L_coh_t": "92 ± 24 Myr",
    "posterior_xi_CR": "0.31 ± 0.09",
    "posterior_xi_rad": "0.22 ± 0.07",
    "posterior_theta_open": "73 ± 12 deg",
    "posterior_f_floor": "0.17 ± 0.04",
    "posterior_f_cap": "0.82 ± 0.06",
    "posterior_eta_damp": "0.21 ± 0.06",
    "posterior_phi_align": "0.10 ± 0.21 rad"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "EFT_total": 93,
    "Mainstream_total": 85,
    "dimensions": {
      "解释力": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "预测性": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "拟合优度": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 12 },
      "稳健性": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "参数经济性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 10 },
      "可证伪性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 6, "weight": 8 },
      "跨尺度一致性": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 12 },
      "数据利用率": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 8 },
      "计算透明度": { "EFT": 7, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 6 },
      "外推能力": { "EFT": 14, "Mainstream": 11, "weight": 10 }
    }
  },
  "version": "1.2.1",
  "authors": [ "委托：Guanglin Tu", "撰写：GPT-5" ],
  "date_created": "2025-09-08",
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0"
}