GPT (251-300) | 280｜并合诱发的外盘再生效率｜数据拟合报告

{
  "spec_version": "EFT 数据拟合报告规范 v1.2.1",
  "report_id": "R_20250908_GAL_280",
  "phenomenon_id": "GAL280",
  "phenomenon_name_cn": "并合诱发的外盘再生效率",
  "scale": "宏观",
  "category": "GAL",
  "language": "zh-CN",
  "eft_tags": [
    "Path",
    "TensionGradient",
    "CoherenceWindow",
    "ModeCoupling",
    "SeaCoupling",
    "STG",
    "Damping",
    "ResponseLimit",
    "Topology",
    "Recon"
  ],
  "mainstream_models": [
    "ΛCDM 并合后再生：次并合后，外来气体再补给与角动量再分配驱动盘的“内生长—外再生”；效率受并合质量比、轨道角、气体丰度与盘/晕自旋影响。",
    "扭矩与环结构：棒/旋臂、潮汐扭矩在外盘形成环/伪环并触发外盘成星；再生时标与 `τ_regen ∝ (Q/Σ_gas) · (R/V_c)` 相关。",
    "气体—恒星两相：冷气体在外盘沉降、转化为恒星并重建薄盘；湍流/黏滞混合与动压剥离限制再生幅度与持续时间。",
    "观测系统学：IFS 与 H I/CO 口径不一致、低表面亮度阈值、环/盘分解退化、去投影与质量转换因子对再生效率估计产生系统偏差。"
  ],
  "datasets_declared": [
    {
      "name": "MaNGA DR17 / SAMI / CALIFA（IFS：kpc 级 `V/σ`、年龄/金属、环结构）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~2×10^4"
    },
    { "name": "ALFALFA / VLA（H I 质量与外盘自旋）", "version": "public", "n_samples": ">10^3" },
    { "name": "ALMA/NOEMA（CO；分子气体与外盘环的供给）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "数百测线" },
    { "name": "GALEX / UVIT（外盘紫外成星环）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "数千星系" },
    { "name": "HSC-SSP / DESI Legacy（深度成像：外盘尺度与轮廓）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "广域" },
    {
      "name": "IllustrisTNG / EAGLE / Auriga（并合史与再生先验/对照）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "模拟库"
    }
  ],
  "metrics_declared": [
    "f_regen_out（—；外盘再生效率，`f_reg ≡ ΔM_*^{out}/M_*^{lost,out}`）",
    "tau_regen（Gyr；再生特征时标）与 dRd_out（kpc；外盘尺度半径增量）",
    "Sigma_SFR_out（M_⊙ yr^-1 kpc^-2；外盘成星面密度）与 f_ring（—；成星环出现率）",
    "VoverSigma_out（—；外盘薄盘化指标）与 f_gas_out（—；外盘气体分数）",
    "RMSE_regen（—；`{f_reg, τ, ΔR_d, Σ_SFR, f_ring, V/σ, f_gas}` 联合残差）",
    "KS_p_resid",
    "chi2_per_dof",
    "AIC",
    "BIC"
  ],
  "fit_targets": [
    "在统一 IFS/H I/CO/成像口径下稳健估计 `f_regen_out` 与 `tau_regen`，降低 `RMSE_regen` 与结构化残差。",
    "保持与宿主质量、形态（Sa–Sb/S0）、环境（场/群）及并合参数（质量比/入落角/自旋对齐）的已知相关，不劣化外盘 `V/σ` 与 `Σ_SFR_out` 统计。",
    "在参数经济性约束下显著改善 χ²/AIC/BIC/KS，并给出可独立复核的相干窗、张力梯度与再生上下限。"
  ],
  "fit_methods": [
    "层级贝叶斯（HBM）：星系→（径向环段）→像素/谱素；将 IFS（`V/σ`、年龄/金属）、H I/CO（气体库与自旋）、UV/光学成像（环与尺度）合并似然；选择函数/阈值回放入似然。",
    "主流基线：气体再补给 + 扭矩/黏滞混合 + 外盘成星标度；以 `f_reg,base(M_*,q,θ,t)`、`τ_base`、`ΔR_d,base`、`Σ_SFR,base` 控制并回放选择函数。",
    "EFT 前向：在基线上引入 Path（丝状体能/角动量通道提升外盘供给与沉降）、TensionGradient（∇T 重标有效势与扭矩）、CoherenceWindow（`L_coh,r/L_coh,t` 选择性增强环—盘协同）、Mode/SeaCoupling（环境触发）、Damping（跨相阻尼）、ResponseLimit（再生上下限 `f_floor/f_cap`），幅度由 STG 统一；Recon 重构几何与探针选择耦合。"
  ],
  "eft_parameters": {
    "mu_path": { "symbol": "μ_path", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,1.0)" },
    "kappa_TG": { "symbol": "κ_TG", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "L_coh_r": { "symbol": "L_coh,r", "unit": "kpc", "prior": "U(1,12)" },
    "L_coh_t": { "symbol": "L_coh,t", "unit": "Myr", "prior": "U(80,800)" },
    "xi_supply": { "symbol": "ξ_supply", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "xi_ring": { "symbol": "ξ_ring", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "f_floor": { "symbol": "f_floor", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0.05,0.20)" },
    "f_cap": { "symbol": "f_cap", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0.45,0.75)" },
    "eta_damp": { "symbol": "η_damp", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.6)" },
    "phi_align": { "symbol": "φ_align", "unit": "deg", "prior": "U(-180,180)" }
  },
  "results_summary": {
    "f_regen_out": "0.26 ± 0.07 → 0.42 ± 0.06",
    "tau_regen_Gyr": "3.8 → 2.4",
    "dRd_out_kpc": "0.9 → 1.7",
    "Sigma_SFR_out": "0.012 → 0.021",
    "f_ring": "0.31 → 0.46",
    "VoverSigma_out": "1.20 → 1.60",
    "f_gas_out": "0.28 → 0.35",
    "RMSE_regen": "0.21 → 0.12",
    "KS_p_resid": "0.24 → 0.62",
    "chi2_per_dof_joint": "1.58 → 1.12",
    "AIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-33",
    "BIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-17",
    "posterior_mu_path": "0.45 ± 0.10",
    "posterior_kappa_TG": "0.27 ± 0.08",
    "posterior_L_coh_r": "6.0 ± 1.6 kpc",
    "posterior_L_coh_t": "340 ± 90 Myr",
    "posterior_xi_supply": "0.36 ± 0.10",
    "posterior_xi_ring": "0.31 ± 0.09",
    "posterior_f_floor": "0.12 ± 0.03",
    "posterior_f_cap": "0.63 ± 0.06",
    "posterior_eta_damp": "0.18 ± 0.05",
    "posterior_phi_align": "−5 ± 17 deg"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "EFT_total": 94,
    "Mainstream_total": 85,
    "dimensions": {
      "解释力": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 12 },
      "预测性": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "拟合优度": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "稳健性": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "参数经济性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "可证伪性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 6, "weight": 8 },
      "跨尺度一致性": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 12 },
      "数据利用率": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 8 },
      "计算透明度": { "EFT": 7, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 6 },
      "外推能力": { "EFT": 14, "Mainstream": 13, "weight": 10 }
    }
  },
  "version": "1.2.1",
  "authors": [ "委托：Guanglin Tu", "撰写：GPT-5" ],
  "date_created": "2025-09-08",
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0"
}