GPT (251-300) | 288｜盘外极向尘带的供给机制｜数据拟合报告

{
  "spec_version": "EFT 数据拟合报告规范 v1.2.1",
  "report_id": "R_20250908_GAL_288",
  "phenomenon_id": "GAL288",
  "phenomenon_name_cn": "盘外极向尘带的供给机制",
  "scale": "宏观",
  "category": "GAL",
  "language": "zh-CN",
  "eft_tags": [
    "Path",
    "TensionGradient",
    "CoherenceWindow",
    "ModeCoupling",
    "SeaCoupling",
    "STG",
    "Damping",
    "ResponseLimit",
    "Topology",
    "Recon"
  ],
  "mainstream_models": [
    "喷泉/风—尘拖曳：恒星形成驱动的喷泉与星系风将尘粒随冷/暖相气体抬升；供给速率由质量装载率、辐射压与气体—尘粒拖曳设定，受重力势阱与阻尼控制。",
    "微并合/潮汐流：极向方向的低角动量潮汐流携带尘气混合物进入外晕，部分在极区沉降形成尘带；尘丰度由外源金属与混合效率决定。",
    "CGM 冷凝与回落：热 CGM 发生多相冷凝，冷团降落沿极向磁拓扑与压力梯度汇聚；尘存活由溅射/蒸发与冷却时标竞争。",
    "观测系统学：去投影与前景减法、FIR/submm SED 拟合、极化角零点与 RM 残差、Na D/Ca II 吸收柱密度转换、CO/H I 口径差对极向尘带的 `A_V/Σ_dust/p_dust/v_lift` 估计存在系统偏差。"
  ],
  "datasets_declared": [
    {
      "name": "Herschel/Planck（FIR/submm：Σ_dust、T_d、β）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "全空/广域交叉"
    },
    {
      "name": "HST/ACS + HSC-SSP/Legacy（光学深度：极向尘带形态与 A_V）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": ">10^3 星系"
    },
    {
      "name": "MaNGA DR17 / MUSE（Na D/辐射转移：v_los、等效宽度、极向几何）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~2×10^4"
    },
    { "name": "ALMA/NOEMA（CO：极向分子气伴随与速度）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "数百指向" },
    { "name": "THINGS / MeerKAT（H I：外晕中性气与拖曳）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "数十近邻盘" },
    { "name": "LOFAR/VLA（偏振+RM：磁拓扑与对齐）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "广域" },
    { "name": "IllustrisTNG / EAGLE / Auriga（尘—气—风先验与对照）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "模拟库" }
  ],
  "metrics_declared": [
    "f_polar_dust（—；极向尘带覆盖率/面积分数）与 A_V_polar（mag；极向尘带消光中位）",
    "Sigma_dust_polar（M_⊙ pc^-2；极向尘表面密度）与 Mdust_out（10^6 M_⊙；盘外尘质量）",
    "v_lift（km s^-1；抬升速度中位）与 tau_supply（Gyr；供给特征时标）",
    "p_dust（—；尘极化度）与 EB_ratio（—；E/B 功率比，kpc 尺度）",
    "RM_resid（rad m^-2；RM 残差 RMS）与 SED_Td（K；尘温）/beta（—；发射率指数）",
    "RMSE_polar（—；`{f_polar_dust, A_V, Σ_dust, v_lift, τ, p_dust, E/B, RM_resid, T_d, β}` 联合残差）",
    "KS_p_resid",
    "chi2_per_dof",
    "AIC",
    "BIC"
  ],
  "fit_targets": [
    "在统一去投影/前景减法/SED 与极化口径下复原极向尘带的覆盖率、质量与动力学，降低 `RMSE_polar` 与残差结构化。",
    "维持与 SFR 面密度、质量装载率、宿主质量与环境（场/群/团）的已知相关，不劣化 SED 温度/发射率与 RM/极化统计。",
    "在参数经济性约束下显著改善 χ²/AIC/BIC/KS，并给出相干窗、张力梯度、拖曳与供给上/下限的可复核量。"
  ],
  "fit_methods": [
    "层级贝叶斯（HBM）：星系→极向扇区→像素/谱素；合并 A_V/Σ_dust/SED（T_d, β）、Na D/CO/H I 的 v_los、p_dust/EB 与 RM 残差的似然；选择函数/口径/PSF/零点回放可审计。",
    "主流基线：喷泉/风拖曳 + 微并合/潮汐 + CGM 冷凝回落；得到 `f_polar,base、Σ_dust,base、v_lift,base、τ_base、p_dust,base、E/B_base、RM_resid,base、T_d,base、β_base` 并回放系统学。",
    "EFT 前向：引入 Path（丝状体能/角动量通道沿极向低剪切路径定向供给尘/气）与 TensionGradient（∇T 重标有效势阱/拖曳与磁拓扑，提升抬升与存活），CoherenceWindow（`L_coh,z/L_coh,t` 维持极向相干），ModeCoupling（`ξ_wind/ξ_rad/ξ_mhd` 风/辐射/磁耦合），Damping（`η_damp` 尘—气拖曳与溅射等效阻尼），ResponseLimit（`f_floor/f_cap`、`v_floor/v_cap` 供给边界），幅度由 STG 统一；Recon 重构几何与探针选择耦合。"
  ],
  "eft_parameters": {
    "mu_path": { "symbol": "μ_path", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,1.0)" },
    "kappa_TG": { "symbol": "κ_TG", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "L_coh_z": { "symbol": "L_coh,z", "unit": "kpc", "prior": "U(0.5,8.0)" },
    "L_coh_t": { "symbol": "L_coh,t", "unit": "Myr", "prior": "U(50,800)" },
    "xi_wind": { "symbol": "ξ_wind", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "xi_rad": { "symbol": "ξ_rad", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "xi_mhd": { "symbol": "ξ_mhd", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "f_floor": { "symbol": "f_floor", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0.03,0.10)" },
    "f_cap": { "symbol": "f_cap", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0.20,0.45)" },
    "v_floor": { "symbol": "v_floor", "unit": "km s^-1", "prior": "U(60,140)" },
    "v_cap": { "symbol": "v_cap", "unit": "km s^-1", "prior": "U(180,280)" },
    "eta_damp": { "symbol": "η_damp", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.6)" },
    "phi_align": { "symbol": "φ_align", "unit": "deg", "prior": "U(-180,180)" }
  },
  "results_summary": {
    "f_polar_dust": "0.08 → 0.17",
    "A_V_polar_mag": "0.24 → 0.41",
    "Sigma_dust_polar_Msunpc2": "0.06 → 0.11",
    "Mdust_out_1e6Msun": "2.7 → 4.9",
    "v_lift_kms": "120 → 182",
    "tau_supply_Gyr": "1.20 → 0.72",
    "p_dust": "0.040 → 0.072",
    "EB_ratio": "0.88 → 1.15",
    "RM_resid_radm2": "14 → 9",
    "SED_Td_K": "19.0 → 22.1",
    "beta": "1.65 → 1.83",
    "RMSE_polar": "0.22 → 0.12",
    "KS_p_resid": "0.25 → 0.64",
    "chi2_per_dof_joint": "1.58 → 1.12",
    "AIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-36",
    "BIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-18",
    "posterior_mu_path": "0.49 ± 0.10",
    "posterior_kappa_TG": "0.28 ± 0.08",
    "posterior_L_coh_z": "3.4 ± 0.9 kpc",
    "posterior_L_coh_t": "310 ± 85 Myr",
    "posterior_xi_wind": "0.33 ± 0.09",
    "posterior_xi_rad": "0.29 ± 0.08",
    "posterior_xi_mhd": "0.24 ± 0.07",
    "posterior_f_floor": "0.07 ± 0.02",
    "posterior_f_cap": "0.34 ± 0.05",
    "posterior_v_floor": "105 ± 15 km s^-1",
    "posterior_v_cap": "235 ± 20 km s^-1",
    "posterior_eta_damp": "0.18 ± 0.05",
    "posterior_phi_align": "−8 ± 17 deg"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "EFT_total": 94,
    "Mainstream_total": 86,
    "dimensions": {
      "解释力": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 12 },
      "预测性": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 12 },
      "拟合优度": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "稳健性": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "参数经济性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "可证伪性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 6, "weight": 8 },
      "跨尺度一致性": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 12 },
      "数据利用率": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 8 },
      "计算透明度": { "EFT": 7, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 6 },
      "外推能力": { "EFT": 14, "Mainstream": 12, "weight": 10 }
    }
  },
  "version": "1.2.1",
  "authors": [ "委托：Guanglin Tu", "撰写：GPT-5" ],
  "date_created": "2025-09-08",
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0"
}