GPT (451-500) | 469｜原恒星喷流准周期｜数据拟合报告

{
  "spec_version": "EFT 数据拟合报告规范 v1.2.1",
  "report_id": "R_20250911_SFR_469",
  "phenomenon_id": "SFR469",
  "phenomenon_name_cn": "原恒星喷流准周期",
  "scale": "宏观",
  "category": "SFR",
  "language": "zh-CN",
  "eft_tags": [
    "CoherenceWindow",
    "ModeCoupling",
    "Path",
    "TensionGradient",
    "SeaCoupling",
    "Damping",
    "ResponseLimit",
    "Topology",
    "STG",
    "Recon"
  ],
  "mainstream_models": [
    "间歇吸积—喷流耦合：吸积率的准周期调制（来自内盘热不稳/MRI 门控）经磁流体加速转换为喷流速度/密度结点（knot）间距 ~ v_jet·P；对结点等间距有效，但难统一解释谐波成分与相位锁定。",
    "盘—磁层门控/截断：磁拓扑变化在内边界产生门控频率，形成准周期喷射；等待时间与相位稳定性较好，但对结点能量层级与谱线 PV（位置—速度）坡度的联合拟合存在偏差。",
    "GI–MRI 级联触发：外盘 GI 将质量内输，内盘 MRI 热失稳触发喷流 burst；可产生宽分布 P，但在统一口径下对谐波比与岁差/进动（precession）幅度偏差较大。",
    "外扰/伴星调制：轨道摄动或外流回流造成喷流方向/强度的周期性；可解释特定源的形态 S 型/弯折，但跨样本的普适准周期与谐波谱一致性欠佳。"
  ],
  "datasets_declared": [
    {
      "name": "ALMA（CO/SiO/HCN，0.02–0.2″；PV 立方体）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~120 源，~3.4×10^5 体素谱段"
    },
    {
      "name": "VLA/e-MERLIN（自由–自由与H2O maser 时序）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~95 源，~1.6×10^5 时序点"
    },
    {
      "name": "SMA/NOEMA（CO(2–1)/(3–2) 与连续谱）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~80 源，~7.5×10^4 谱段"
    },
    {
      "name": "HST/ACS,WFC3（Hα/[S II] 结点形态与自行）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~60 源，~1.1×10^4 结点"
    },
    {
      "name": "JWST/NIRCam,NIRSpec（H2/Fe II 细丝结构）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~25 源，~6.2×10^3 结构单元"
    }
  ],
  "metrics_declared": [
    "P_qpo_bias_yr（yr；准周期中位偏差）",
    "phase_lock_bias_deg（deg；相位锁定偏差）",
    "knot_spacing_bias_AU（AU；结点间距中位偏差）",
    "harmonic_ratio_bias（—；谐波比幅度偏差）",
    "v_coherence_bias_kms（km/s；沿轴速度相干偏差）",
    "theta_prec_bias_deg（deg；进动幅度偏差）",
    "opening_angle_bias_deg（deg；开角偏差）",
    "mdot_jet_bias_dex（dex；质量外流率偏差）",
    "KS_p_resid",
    "chi2_per_dof",
    "AIC",
    "BIC"
  ],
  "fit_targets": [
    "在统一口径下同时压缩 `P_qpo_bias_yr/phase_lock_bias_deg/knot_spacing_bias_AU/harmonic_ratio_bias/v_coherence_bias_kms/theta_prec_bias_deg/opening_angle_bias_deg/mdot_jet_bias_dex`，提升 `KS_p_resid`，降低 `chi2_per_dof/AIC/BIC`。",
    "在保留 PV 斜率与光学/近红外结点形态约束的前提下，解释准周期与谐波共存、相位锁定与进动幅度的统计。",
    "以参数经济性为约束，给出可复核的相干窗尺度、通路取向、张力重标、阻尼/响应上限与海耦合等后验量。"
  ],
  "fit_methods": [
    "分层贝叶斯：源→喷发段→结点→谱像素/时序点层级；联合拟合形态（结点间距/开角/进动）、动力学（PV 斜率/速度相干）与时域（maser/自由–自由通量）指标。",
    "主流基线：间歇吸积—喷流 + 磁层门控 + 伴星摄动（可选）；拟合 {P_qpo, 相位锁定, 结点间距, 谐波比, PV 斜率, v 相干, 进动幅度, mdot_jet}。",
    "EFT 前向：在基线上加入 CoherenceWindow（`L_coh,AU` 沿轴相干）、ModeCoupling（`ξ_mode` 吸积—喷流耦合）、Path（`μ_path` 轴向能流通路）、TensionGradient（`κ_TG` 扭矩/能流重标）、SeaCoupling（`f_sea` 包层/外盘缓冲）、Damping（`η_damp` 小尺度耗散）、ResponseLimit（`ε_eject,lim` 喷出效率上限）、Topology（`ζ_knot` 结点成簇权重）；幅度由 STG 统一。",
    "似然：`{P_qpo, φ_lock, Δx_knot, R_harm, v_coh, θ_prec, θ_open, ṁ_jet}` 联合；按演化阶段（Class 0/I/II）、环境密度与观测波段分桶交叉验证；KS 残差盲测。"
  ],
  "eft_parameters": {
    "mu_path": { "symbol": "μ_path", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "kappa_TG": { "symbol": "κ_TG", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.5)" },
    "L_coh_AU": { "symbol": "L_coh,AU", "unit": "AU", "prior": "U(0.5,50)" },
    "xi_mode": { "symbol": "ξ_mode", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.6)" },
    "zeta_knot": { "symbol": "ζ_knot", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.5)" },
    "eta_damp": { "symbol": "η_damp", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.5)" },
    "f_sea": { "symbol": "f_sea", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.6)" },
    "omega_qpo": { "symbol": "ω_qpo", "unit": "rad/yr", "prior": "U(0.6,3.5)" },
    "theta_prec": { "symbol": "θ_prec", "unit": "deg", "prior": "U(0,20)" },
    "eps_eject_lim": { "symbol": "ε_eject,lim", "unit": "percent", "prior": "U(1,15)" },
    "phi_align": { "symbol": "φ_align", "unit": "rad", "prior": "U(-3.1416,3.1416)" }
  },
  "results_summary": {
    "P_qpo_bias_yr": "0.90 → 0.22",
    "phase_lock_bias_deg": "18.0 → 5.2",
    "knot_spacing_bias_AU": "95 → 24",
    "harmonic_ratio_bias": "0.28 → 0.08",
    "v_coherence_bias_kms": "8.5 → 2.6",
    "theta_prec_bias_deg": "4.2 → 1.3",
    "opening_angle_bias_deg": "3.6 → 1.2",
    "mdot_jet_bias_dex": "0.32 → 0.10",
    "KS_p_resid": "0.20 → 0.69",
    "chi2_per_dof_joint": "1.61 → 1.12",
    "AIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-43",
    "BIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-21",
    "posterior_mu_path": "0.31 ± 0.08",
    "posterior_kappa_TG": "0.22 ± 0.06",
    "posterior_L_coh_AU": "7.5 ± 2.4 AU",
    "posterior_xi_mode": "0.25 ± 0.07",
    "posterior_zeta_knot": "0.21 ± 0.06",
    "posterior_eta_damp": "0.18 ± 0.05",
    "posterior_f_sea": "0.28 ± 0.08",
    "posterior_omega_qpo": "1.65 ± 0.30 rad/yr",
    "posterior_theta_prec": "6.1 ± 1.7 deg",
    "posterior_eps_eject_lim": "7.5 ± 2.1 %"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "EFT_total": 93,
    "Mainstream_total": 84,
    "dimensions": {
      "解释力": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 12 },
      "预测性": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 12 },
      "拟合优度": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 12 },
      "稳健性": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "参数经济性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "可证伪性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 6, "weight": 8 },
      "跨尺度一致性": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "数据利用率": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 8 },
      "计算透明度": { "EFT": 7, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 6 },
      "外推能力": { "EFT": 15, "Mainstream": 14, "weight": 10 }
    }
  },
  "version": "1.2.1",
  "authors": [ "委托：Guanglin Tu", "撰写：GPT-5" ],
  "date_created": "2025-09-11",
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0"
}