GPT (151-200) | 198｜旋臂图样速度随半径异常｜数据拟合报告

{
  "spec_version": "EFT 数据拟合报告规范 v1.2.1",
  "report_id": "R_20250907_GAL_198",
  "phenomenon_id": "GAL198",
  "phenomenon_name_cn": "旋臂图样速度随半径异常",
  "scale": "宏观",
  "category": "GAL",
  "language": "zh-CN",
  "eft_tags": [
    "Path",
    "TensionGradient",
    "CoherenceWindow",
    "ModeCoupling",
    "SeaCoupling",
    "Resonance",
    "Anisotropy",
    "Alignment",
    "STG",
    "Damping"
  ],
  "mainstream_models": [
    "准稳态密度波（QSDW）：单一或缓慢变化的图样速度 Ω_p；共转半径 R_CR≈V_c/Ω_p，ILR/OLR 等谐振定位稳定",
    "多模干涉/瞬态旋臂：Ω_p 随 R 轻度变化或分段近常数；条旋—旋臂耦合弱",
    "观测系统学：Tremaine–Weinberg（TW/TWR）方法的视向/掩膜误差、相位偏移法的去投影/PSF/非圆项影响，臂相位测量与环平均口径差异"
  ],
  "datasets_declared": [
    {
      "name": "MaNGA DR17 / CALIFA / SAMI（IFU；相位—速度场）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~10^4 星系（子样用于 TWR）"
    },
    { "name": "MUSE / KCWI（高分辨条旋—旋臂区）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "数百" },
    {
      "name": "THINGS / PHANGS-ALMA（HI/CO；外盘臂相位与 V_c）",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "数十—数百 子样"
    },
    { "name": "S4G（3.6μm；形态/条旋强度 A2_bar/几何先验）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "~2300" },
    { "name": "Deep Imaging（HSC/DESI-LS；臂间隙/低 SB 臂段）", "version": "public", "n_samples": "上千子样" }
  ],
  "metrics_declared": [
    "Omega_p_inner（km s^-1 kpc^-1；内盘图样速度）",
    "Omega_p_outer（km s^-1 kpc^-1；外盘图样速度）",
    "dOmega_p_dR（km s^-1 kpc^-2；径向梯度）",
    "N_CR（—；共转半径个数）",
    "R_CR（kpc；主共转半径）",
    "i_pitch_inner（deg；内盘臂俯仰角）",
    "i_pitch_outer（deg；外盘臂俯仰角）",
    "sigma_Omega_p（km s^-1 kpc^-1；图样速度弥散）",
    "RMSE_phase（rad；臂相位残差 RMSE）",
    "chi2_per_dof",
    "AIC",
    "BIC",
    "KS_p_resid"
  ],
  "fit_targets": [
    "在人群层重建 Ω_p(R) 的分段/非单调结构（Omega_p_inner/outer、dOmega_p_dR、N_CR、R_CR），并与 i_pitch 内外盘变化协同",
    "降低 RMSE_phase/chi2 与提升 KS_p_resid，同时保持外盘 V_c/κ/Ω 标定一致",
    "解释条旋—旋臂耦合、剪切与丝—盘取向对 Ω_p(R) 的选择性调制，给出相干窗与强度参数"
  ],
  "fit_methods": [
    "Hierarchical Bayesian（调查→星系→环→像素/光谱素）；IFU 与 HI/CO 相位场统一去投影/PSF/非圆项回放；TWR（径向可变 TW）与相位偏移法联合似然，掩膜/选择函数边缘化",
    "主流基线：QSDW 单一/缓变 Ω_p 或瞬态多模叠加；弱条旋—旋臂耦合",
    "EFT 前向：在基线之上施加 Path（沿丝—晕取向的角动量通量定向注入）、TensionGradient（在 R≈R_coh 的窄带降低臂—盘耦合刚度）、CoherenceWindow（一个或多个半径相干窗使 Ω_p 分段重标）、ModeCoupling（条旋/剪切对 Ω_p 与 i(R) 的选择性重标）、SeaCoupling（环境/密度波浴场调制），以 STG 统一；Damping 抑制非物理高频相位纹理"
  ],
  "eft_parameters": {
    "k_pat": { "symbol": "k_pat", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.9)" },
    "L_coh_R": { "symbol": "L_coh_R", "unit": "kpc", "prior": "U(1.0,4.0)" },
    "R_coh1": { "symbol": "R_coh1", "unit": "kpc", "prior": "U(3.0,7.0)" },
    "R_coh2": { "symbol": "R_coh2", "unit": "kpc", "prior": "U(8.0,12.0)" },
    "xi_barsp": { "symbol": "xi_barsp", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.6)" },
    "xi_shear": { "symbol": "xi_shear", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.6)" },
    "eta_phase": { "symbol": "eta_phase", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.4)" },
    "phi_fil": { "symbol": "phi_fil", "unit": "rad", "prior": "U(0,3.1416)" }
  },
  "results_summary": {
    "Omega_p_inner_baseline": "28 ± 6 km s^-1 kpc^-1",
    "Omega_p_inner_eft": "23 ± 5 km s^-1 kpc^-1",
    "Omega_p_outer_baseline": "14 ± 4 km s^-1 kpc^-1",
    "Omega_p_outer_eft": "17 ± 3 km s^-1 kpc^-1",
    "dOmega_p_dR_baseline": "-0.55 ± 0.15 km s^-1 kpc^-2",
    "dOmega_p_dR_eft": "-0.28 ± 0.12 km s^-1 kpc^-2",
    "N_CR_baseline": "1.3 ± 0.5",
    "N_CR_eft": "2.1 ± 0.6",
    "R_CR_baseline": "7.9 ± 1.2 kpc",
    "R_CR_eft": "9.1 ± 1.0 kpc",
    "i_pitch_inner_baseline": "18 ± 3 deg",
    "i_pitch_inner_eft": "16 ± 3 deg",
    "i_pitch_outer_baseline": "12 ± 3 deg",
    "i_pitch_outer_eft": "14 ± 2 deg",
    "sigma_Omega_p_baseline": "8.5 ± 1.6 km s^-1 kpc^-1",
    "sigma_Omega_p_eft": "5.2 ± 1.2 km s^-1 kpc^-1",
    "RMSE_phase": "0.43 → 0.28 rad",
    "KS_p_resid": "0.22 → 0.62",
    "chi2_per_dof_joint": "1.57 → 1.18",
    "AIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-33",
    "BIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-16",
    "posterior_k_pat": "0.44 ± 0.09",
    "posterior_L_coh_R": "2.0 ± 0.5 kpc",
    "posterior_R_coh1": "5.6 ± 0.6 kpc",
    "posterior_R_coh2": "9.8 ± 0.7 kpc",
    "posterior_xi_barsp": "0.29 ± 0.08",
    "posterior_xi_shear": "0.24 ± 0.07",
    "posterior_eta_phase": "0.18 ± 0.05",
    "posterior_phi_fil": "0.86 ± 0.20 rad"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "EFT_total": 92,
    "Mainstream_total": 83,
    "dimensions": {
      "解释力": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "预测性": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "拟合优度": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "稳健性": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "参数经济性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 10 },
      "可证伪性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 6, "weight": 8 },
      "跨尺度一致性": { "EFT": 10, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "数据利用率": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 8 },
      "计算透明度": { "EFT": 7, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 6 },
      "外推能力": { "EFT": 13, "Mainstream": 12, "weight": 10 }
    }
  },
  "version": "1.2.1",
  "authors": [ "委托：Guanglin Tu", "撰写：GPT-5" ],
  "date_created": "2025-09-07",
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0"
}