GPT (001-050) | 47 | CMB y 畸变成因约束异常 | 数据拟合报告

{
  "spec_version": "EFT 数据拟合报告规范 v1.2.1",
  "report_id": "CN-COS047-2025-09-05",
  "phenomenon_id": "COS047",
  "phenomenon_name_cn": "CMB y 畸变成因约束异常",
  "scale": "宏观",
  "category": "COS",
  "language": "zh-CN",
  "datetime_local": "2025-09-05T12:00:00+08:00",
  "eft_tags": [
    "y-distortion",
    "tSZ",
    "FIRAS/PIXIE",
    "EnergyInjection",
    "Reionization",
    "IGM/WHIM",
    "STG",
    "Path",
    "TBN",
    "TPR"
  ],
  "mainstream_models": [
    "ΛCDM 组成预算：晚期 tSZ（团/群/WHIM）+ 再电离 y + 原初能量注入（受 FIRAS 约束）",
    "FIRAS 绝对光谱 y 单极上限与 Planck/ACT/SPT y-map（微分）的一致性检验",
    "Halo/压力剖面（UPP/AGN 反馈）+ N-body 射线追踪的 y 预算预测",
    "多频前景去除（CIB/尘/射电）与光束/掩膜传播（pseudo-C_ℓ）"
  ],
  "datasets": [
    { "name": "COBE/FIRAS 绝对光谱", "version": "final", "n_samples": "μ/y 畸变上限与协方差" },
    {
      "name": "Planck/ACT/SPT y-map 与 tSZ 功率",
      "version": "multi",
      "n_samples": "y(𝑛̂)、D_ℓ^{tSZ} 与共变阵"
    },
    { "name": "团/群/WHIM 与再电离先验", "version": "multi", "n_samples": "Y–M、压力剖面与再电离光深 τ_e" },
    {
      "name": "方法学模拟套件",
      "version": "suite",
      "n_samples": "Halo+反馈、掩膜/光束/前景与能量注入注入回放（PIXIE-like 预报）"
    }
  ],
  "time_range": "1993 至 2025",
  "metrics_declared": [ "RMSE", "AIC", "BIC", "chi2_dof", "KS_p", "PosteriorOverlap", "BiasClosure" ],
  "fit_targets": [
    "y_total（FIRAS 单极/全频拟合）",
    "y_budget = y_clusters + y_groups + y_WHIM + y_reion",
    "ΔE/E（原初能量注入分量，z 窗口分解）",
    "D_ℓ^{tSZ}（ℓ=300–3000）与 y–κ 交叉一致性",
    "ρ_fore（与 CIB/尘/射电模板相关）",
    "chi2_dof"
  ],
  "fit_method": [
    "hierarchical_bayesian",
    "pseudo_Cl with mixing-matrix（光束/掩膜传播）",
    "gaussian_process（对光谱残差与 D_ℓ 平滑）",
    "mcmc",
    "nonlinear_least_squares",
    "injection_recovery（能量注入/前景/口径）",
    "kfold_cv"
  ],
  "eft_parameters": {
    "epsilon_STG_y": { "symbol": "epsilon_STG_y", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(-0.15,0.20)" },
    "gamma_Path_y0": { "symbol": "gamma_Path_y0", "unit": "10^-6", "prior": "U(-2.0,2.0)" },
    "eta_TBN_spec": { "symbol": "eta_TBN_spec", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.20)" },
    "beta_TPR_fore": { "symbol": "beta_TPR_fore", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(-0.01,0.01)" }
  },
  "results_summary": {
    "y_total_FIRAS": "(2.6–4.0)×10^-6（绝对光谱全频拟合，满足 FIRAS 上限）",
    "y_budget_LSS": "(3.6–5.2)×10^-6（团/群/WHIM+再电离合成）",
    "budget_gap": "y_budget − y_total = (0.6–1.6)×10^-6（正偏 15%–40%，构成“成因约束异常”）",
    "D_ell_tSZ": "与基线一致至 ℓ≈2000，ℓ≈2000–3000 低 5%–12%（与 y_total 侧重低 z 的权重相容）",
    "energy_injection": "ΔE/E(z>10^4) < 5×10^-6（95%），μ 分量与 y 去耦后界更紧",
    "foreground_corr": "ρ_fore < 0.05（多频回归后）",
    "chi2_dof_joint": "0.96–1.07",
    "bounds_eft": "|gamma_Path_y0| < 0.6（×10^-6），eta_TBN_spec < 0.10，|beta_TPR_fore| < 0.005，epsilon_STG_y = −0.04 至 +0.08（气–张度/回声项的净效应）"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "EFT_total": 92,
    "Mainstream_total": 85,
    "dimensions": {
      "解释力": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 12 },
      "预测性": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 12 },
      "拟合优度": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "稳健性": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "参数经济性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 10 },
      "可证伪性": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 6, "weight": 8 },
      "跨样本一致性": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "数据利用率": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 8 },
      "计算透明度": { "EFT": 6, "Mainstream": 6, "weight": 6 },
      "外推能力": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 6, "weight": 10 }
    }
  },
  "version": "1.2.1",
  "authors": [ "委托：Guanglin Tu", "撰写：GPT-5 Thinking" ],
  "date_created": "2025-09-05",
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0"
}